| October 16, 2009
The 10-county Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown Metropolitan Statistical Area sustained a net loss of 76,700 jobs, or 3.0 percent, from September ’08 to September ’09, according to estimates the Texas Workforce Commission released today. These figures apparently represent an improvement from the revised 12-month net loss of 101,400 jobs, or 3.9 percent, in August.
Unfortunately, the improvement is more apparent than real. In the first eight months of ’08, Houston was posting 12-month gains well in excess of 2 percent as the increases gradually declined from 3.5 percent in January to 2.4 percent in June, July and August. In September last year, the severe national recession struck Houston’s job market hard, dropping the 12-month gain to just 1.3 percent. In raw numbers, the 12-month gain was cut from 60,900 jobs in August to 34,100 jobs in September. The magnitude of that August-to-September deterioration (26,800 jobs) very nearly matches this year’s August-to-September improvement (24,700 jobs), meaning that what we’re seeing is an artifact of what happened last year rather than a sudden brightening of the outlook for Houston. Without that artifact, the rapid deterioration that set in a year ago seems to have slowed considerably in recent months.
Some of you are probably wondering about how Hurricane Ike affected the employment figures for last September. The short answer is that it didn’t. The payroll employment estimates always pertain to the week containing the 12th day of the month. Ike made landfall on Saturday, September 13, after the period to which the data refer.
Houston’s 3.0 percent over-the-year job loss for September isn’t substantially different from the 2.8 percent statewide loss, but it’s larger than the losses for the state’s other three large metros—2.2 percent in Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, 1.1 percent in San Antonio and 0.7 percent in Austin-Round Rock. Part of Houston’s greater vulnerability to the impact of recession at this point reflects Houston’s greater prominence in international trade. Wholesale trade employment shrank 11.5 percent over the year here, and the unpublished residual category within transportation and warehousing that includes waterborne shipping and warehousing declined 16.5 percent—losses, respectively, of 16,100 and 9,200 jobs, or a third of the overall loss.
For the most part, what we see in the September estimates continues trends of recent months:
The E&P companies continue to eke out job gains, adding 2,400 over the year, but those gains are more than offset by losses in oilfield services, down 4,200. The aggregate net loss for these two industries is important because they have average annual pay in excess of $100,000, and thus disproportionately affect other industries that rely heavily on discretionary income.
In other goods-producing industries, construction is down 19,400 jobs (9.6 percent) over the year, and manufacturing is off 16,200 (6.7 percent).
Associated with declines in oil and gas and in construction, architectural and engineering services have shed 5,200 jobs (7.8 percent).
Consistent with the Partnership’s forecast last November, Houston continues to see gains in educational services (1,200 jobs, 2.9 percent), health care and social assistance (5,900 jobs, 2.4 percent) and government (1,200 jobs, 0.3 percent).
Unforeseen in our forecast, leisure and hospitality has added 4,300 jobs (1.9 percent) over the year.
Unemployment here in September stood at 8.5 percent of the civilian labor force, not significantly different from 8.3 percent statewide, but decidedly better than 9.5 percent nationwide. (Rates are not seasonally adjusted.)
October employment estimates for Texas and its metropolitan areas are scheduled for release on November 20.
Skip Kasdorf
Manager, Economic Research
Greater Houston Partnership
Research Department
1200 Smith, Suite 700
Houston, TX 77002-4400
Phone: 713-844-3615
Fax: 713-844-0215
E-mail: kasdorf@houston.org
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